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Printable Version
AT AMERICAN HARDWARE MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION
Terry Gallagher
Manager of Communications
801 North Plaza Drive
Schaumburg, Illinois 60173
847-592-3504
tgallagher@ahma.org
P.R. # AHMA08-18
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
AHMA Home Improvement Industry Confidence IndexSM Declined in November, Reflecting Economic Situation
Current Situation Index down 37.5 points to 62.5, Future Expectations Index down 24.1 to 75.9
Schaumburg, Illinois, December 3, 2008 — The newly launched AHMA Home Improvement Industry Confidence Index plummeted in November, with the Current Situation Index falling 37.5 points to 62.5 and the Future Expectations Index declining 24.1 points to 75.9.
In comparing current sales levels to year-ago levels, 15 percent of respondents said sales were higher in November, compared with 24 percent in October. For November, 22 percent reported sales were even, and 64 percent said sales were below year-ago levels.
Looking forward six months, 16 percent of November respondents said they expect sales to be above current levels, versus 15 percent who felt that way in October. In November, 30 percent of respondents said they expect sales to be even in six months and 54 percent expect sales to be below current levels.
Looking forward one year, 28 percent of respondents project sales will be higher, down from 42 percent who felt that way in October. Forty-four percent of November respondents project sales will be even one year from now and 29 percent project sales will be below current levels.
Timothy S. Farrell, President and CEO of the American Hardware Manufacturers Association (AHMA), said: “Given the current uncertainty in the financial sector, and the accompanying decline in consumer confidence, many of our members are reporting a slowdown in current sales levels and a lack of confidence in the prospects for a turnaround in the near future, and this month’s Index accurately reflects those sentiments.”
Cecil Given, Executive Vice President, Reaves and Co., commented: “Overall, we feel the industry is close to being near the bottom, and there won’t be much of any trend until at least the third quarter of 2009, maybe later. We do expect enough new business in 2009 to offset declines in current business. Professional contractors will continue to struggle until housing starts and real estate begins to rebound, and that could be 2010.”
Henrick Sternberg, Sales Manager, FHP Manufacturing, said, “In this environment, a continuous focus on value-adding activities is key to long term and short term success.”
About the AHMA Home Improvement Industry Confidence Index
The AHMA Home Improvement Industry Confidence Index is a monthly indicator of the economic health and “mood” of the industry based on a survey of AHMA members.
The survey asks three basic questions of AHMA members: How are current sales compared to one year ago, how do you see sales levels six months from now, and how do you see sales one year from now. The survey also asks questions related to total annual sales and types of products manufactured.
The data collected from the survey produces two Indexes indicating: 1) Current Situation and 2) Future Expectations. Both Indexes use survey data from October 2008 as the base reference point so that October 2008 = 100.
The AHMA Home Improvement Industry Confidence Index results are released on the first Wednesday of every month.
Results of the Index survey are viewable online here: www.ahma.org/ConfidenceIndex/November2008Results
About the American Hardware Manufacturers Association (AHMA)
AHMA is a globally focused trade association of manufacturers, or providers, of hardware, home improvement, lawn and garden, paint and decorating, building and construction and related products, as well as manufacturers’ representative’s agencies and trade publications.
AHMA offers many valuable member and industry programs, services and activities including the AHMA Hardlines Technology Forum®, AHMA / USA International Pavilions, AHMA Advantage GPOSM, The Hard Fax: Home Improvement Industry News®, The Hard Fax International: Home Improvement Industry News from Around the WorldSM, the AHMA Home Improvement Industry Confidence IndexSM, Government Relations Programs, Member Benefit Vendor Programs, the AHMA Hardware Industry Relief Effort (HIRE) and the AHMA / Habitat for Humanity Partnership.
For more information about AHMA, please visit www.ahma.org.
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